Public company reporting frequency
Explains the question of: Why the amount of payouts differs significantly from month to month even though the models accuracy is stable?
Payouts are based on accuracy of predictions measured using the actual data from companies' releasing their financial reports. Contributors make predictions for the upcoming quarter for all of the companies in the Synnax rating, but different companies release their quarterly reports on different dates.
For example, official financial quarters' end dates for companies represented in the Synnax rating in early 2025 are:
Jan / Apr / July / Oct : 634 companies
Feb / May / Aug / Nov: 608 companies
Mar / Jun / Sep / Dec: 19,263 companies
However, the companies usually prepare their financial reports and make them public during the preceding months after the official financial quarter end date.
Based on accumulated statistics from the second half of 2024 the actual months and number of companies which reports became available to Synnax are as follows:
Oct: 4,618
Nov: 12,236
Dec: 1,837
If you compare the official financial quarters' end months with when the actual reports were made available to Synnax, you can see that November has the highest number of actual reports. It appears that these 12,236 reports in November should have come from the following group's September's financial quarter:
Mar / Jun / Sep / Dec: 19263 companies.
This indicates that it took many companies 1+ month after their official financial quarter ended to make these reports available to Synnax.
Given the above example Dec 2024 will contain the least number of companies for scoring which will cause the Contributors' payouts in Dec 2024 to decrease. However Jan 2025 will demonstrate a steady increase in the number of reports going public with (potentially) an even higher increase in Feb 2025, which will result in Contributors' payouts increasing significantly [subject to their models' demonstrating high accuracy].
Also keep in mind that all your prior submissions will impact your payouts for the next 3 months, so the safest bet is to keep submitting predictions regularly to capture the full cycle of reports' releases for all the companies in the list.
P.S. We will be extending a list of companies substantially in the near future, so the provided schedule will change. But this breakdown should give you a good idea or the general reports publication dates distribution.
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